They say August is like the Sunday of summer, so it's best to embrace the reality that a crisp fall may give way to a wet, and maybe not so white, winter for North Jersey, according to the Farmers' Almanac.
The periodical that has prognosticated the weather since the 1800s anticipates that the upcoming winter season will be a "wet winter whirlwind" for the country as a climate pattern known as La Niña — likely to emerge between September and November, according to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center — could bring significant weather changes across the nation.
"Farmers’ Almanacwinter weather forecast calls for a season of rapid-fire storms that will bring both rain and snow, with little downtime in between," the almanac predicts.
Winter in New England — Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont — and the Northeast — New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland — looks to be stormy, with above-normal amounts of precipitation and average to above-average temperatures, the almanac says.
But New Jersey and parts of the tristate area have fallen into a gray area where temperatures may be above average and precipitation may fall as sleet or rain, depending on the elevation, according to a map designed by the almanac.
New Jersey winter weather outlook: Wet and mild or wet and cold?
Temperatures this winter across the entire Garden State are expected to be milder than usual, a likely result of La Niña, but almanac prognosticators split New Jersey nearly in half when it comes to the type of precipitation expected.
"Snow will be most prevalent over the interior and mountainous terrains, while sleet and rain will be more common near the coast, especially near and along the I-95 corridor," the almanac says.
If predictions are true, that means those living to the north and west of Interstate 95 in New Jersey, including Morris, Passaic, Essex and most of Bergen — an area called the Piedmont — may see more snow, while the areas south and east of the split, or the Coastal Plain, are more apt to experience sleet and rain.
The I-95 Corridor, which is often mentioned by meteorologists when describing the major elevation shifts in New Jersey, is also called the Fall Line. South and east of the line is relatively flat land from the ocean to Interstate 95, whereas west and north of the line is where the elevation goes up over a short distance with larger hills, less flat land and eventually the Appalachians.
For ski-lovers, states in the upper Northeast are forecast to have above-normal amounts of snowfall and will be a "bullseye for a barrage of storms" this winter, the almanac's prognosticators say. They say temperatures will be closer to average or above-average.
The temperatures appear to align well with a La Niña year, when winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the south and cooler than normal in the north. The natural climate pattern is marked by cooler-than-average seawater in the Pacific Ocean and is likely to emerge between September and November, climate experts predict.
An early December winter storm, an 'active' end of January
A coastal storm along the East Coast the first week of December may bring mixed precipitation, then very cold temperatures, Farmers' Almanac Editor Sandi Duncan told USA TODAY.
In mid-January, much of New England and New York can expect a few inches of snow thanks to a "fast-moving clipper system," Duncan said. The end of January is expected to be "very active," with a "big storm" dropping 6 or more inches of snow on Delaware, Maryland and parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, with lighter amounts in southern New York and New England, Duncan told USA TODAY. The storm is expected to bring strong, gusty winds, the almanac adds.
As for Thanksgiving and Christmas? Duncan told USA TODAY that most of the nation can expect a wet Thanksgiving holiday, except "way out in the Southwest." And don't anticipate a white Christmas, either. It appears it may be "wet rather than white for most areas," Duncan said.
Did the Farmers' Almanac correctly predict last year's winter weather?
The Farmers' Almanac predicted "lots of rain/sleet and snowstorms" for those living along the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C., to Boston, which proved partially true.
The almanac has several New Jersey connections: It was founded in 1818 by David Young, a poet, astronomer and teacher, and publisher Jacob Mann, who printed the first edition at The Almanac Publishing Company in Morristown in Morris County. Duncan is the first female editor of the periodical in 208 years, and she is from and works remotely from the Garden State, she told NorthJersey.com on Monday.
The almanac, which is now based in New Hampshire, says it uses a mathematical and astronomical formula that includes solar activity, lunar tidal activity and the positions of the planets. Like its fellow almanac, the Old Farmer's Almanac, which dates to 1792, it boasts an 80% to 85% accuracy to its forecasts, although that has been contested by educators over the years.
Overall, the Farmers' Almanac didn't quite nail it on the head when it predicted a cold 2023-24 winter, since it actually was the warmest on record, but its predictions weren't too far off for the North Jersey area.
The almanac accurately predicted an arctic blast accompanied by heavy rains and snows in the East between Jan. 12 and 15, during which a storm dropped several inches across North Jersey. The almanac also predicted a possible snow event for the Northeast in mid-February, and it was nearly spot-on: A winter storm dropped snow across the region on Feb. 12 and 13, with some areas seeing more than a foot.
For many, the Farmers' Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac, which similarly predicts future weather, make for interesting reads. Though there are plenty of online articles by both periodicals and each has a strong fan base — well over a million followers on Facebook — the centuries-old publications are best known for selling their books each year in bookstores and online. The Old Farmer's Almanac is expected to be released later this month.
Email:lcomstock@njherald.com; Twitter:@LoriComstockNJHor onFacebook.
